Thursday, May 22, 2014

Paradox in electoral numbers


Times insight group (May 19,  2014) reported that fragmented votes paved way for BJP landslide in General Elections for 16th Lok Sabha, 2014.  Far from spelling the end of a fractured polity, the 2014 Lok Sabha poll results show just how fragmented the vote was. It is precisely because the vote is so fragmented that the BJP was able to win 282 seats with just 31 percent of the votes. Simply put, less than four out of every 10 votes opted for NDA candidates and not even one in three chose somebody from the BJP to represent them. 

Those who picked Congress or its allies were even fewer, less than one in five for Congress with a 19.3 percent vote share (which incidentally is higher than BJP's 18.5 percent in 2009) and less than one in every four for the UPA. Unfortunately for Congress, its 19.3 percent votes only translated into 44 seats while BJP's 18.5 percent had fetched it 116 seats.

What a great disproportionate correlation between the percentage of votes obtained and the number of seats gained! It appears each constituency and the pattern of voting noticed therein requires to be studied in depth to calculate the achieved result or work in a specialised way to achieve the desired result in the ensuing poll.

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